The Singularity

As mentioned in a previous posting, I was sensitized to "The Singularity" (and the fact that I had been out of touch regarding the concept) at the 2006 WorldCon. But I've been catching up fast.

I am currently reading "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil. I am only a few chapters in, but Kurzweil has already laid out enough food for thought that I am brain-gorging (and digesting) even as I type. Though he does touch on some possible hazards, Kurzweil seems to be a relentlessly optimistic futurist. An "optimistic realist" myself, I read his works with a healthy skepticism.

But there is one area where we are in complete agreement. Years ago, I gave some serious thought to the old saying, "The more things change, the more they remain the same." On the face of it, it is true - a pithy commentary on human motivations regardless of culture or time in history. A politician has basically the same goals, whether in 1750's France or 2000's Beijing. A young man and a young woman whose parents do not want them to be together have the same heartaches, whether in a Shakespearean drama or over the Internet. And then there is the oft-quoted old turnip about youth and music and the downfall of society, which dates back to the Greeks.

However, it occurred to me that most of the folks quoting the phrase missed one major point: things are always changing, and people are certainly aware of that, but lately the rate of change has changed. Major changes - technological advances, paradigm shifts - are arriving closer together than in any other period of human history.

I have been arguing this point for years, and reading Kurzweil's phrase:

"... the future will be far more surprising than most people
realize, because few observers have truly internalized
the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself
is accelerating."

struck me a great blow. Compadre! (Of course, there is also some small satisfaction that I can feel myself one of the 'few observers', the exceptions, to whom he refers...) Kurzweil's "Law of Accelerating Returns" is exactly what I had been striving to impress upon others, for years.

He also stresses that it is not just technology which has significant potential to bring about change, but also ideas:

"... the power of ideas to transform the world
is itself accelerating."

This is another point which I have gone to lengths to impress upon those who focus solely upon charting technological change. Ideas transport even more readily than technology, and may have far broader impact.

So I feel both corroborated and vindicated by Kurzweil's theories, and at the moment feel toward him a warm comradely glow. We shall see what the rest of the book brings.

(Note: I have also [I almost wrote "of course" here but considering my blind spot regarding the Singularity there can be no assumed or implied "of course"] been following with interest the various meme projects as they have developed. I find it of particular interest that the word "meme" is popping up more often in everyday discussions.)